《大行報告》大摩普遍下調澳門賭業股目標價 降金沙中國(01928.HK)派息預測
摩根士丹利發表報告指出,對於澳門賭業股而言,去年是重新開放及收入快速增長(賭收按年增長3.3倍)的一年,儘管已全面復甦,但該行預期今年整體賭收、中場賭收及EBITDA分別增長29%、25%及33%,另普遍下調賭股目標價(見另表)。
該行對行業賭收預測保持基本不變,即2024年中場賭收預測按年增長25%,爲2019年水平的111%,而明年料按年增長7%,爲2019年水平的119%。此外,該行增加博企的營運開支及再投資成本預測,對行業維持建設性看法,對今明兩年行業EBITDA預測各下調3%,至85億及92億美元,相當於2019年水平的92%及100%。
對於今年中場市佔率預測,該行調高對美高梅中國(02282.HK)及永利澳門(01128.HK)的預測,前者由13.1%升至13.8%,後者則由11.9%升至12.7%;但下調金沙中國(01928.HK)及澳博(00880.HK)(不包括衛星賭場)的預測,分別由28.2%降至27.3%,以及由8.8%降至8%。
此外,該行降金沙派息預測,假設今明兩年的派息率爲50%,該行將金沙今明兩年的每股派息由1元下調至0.75元(相當於預測股息率3.3%),以及由1.99元下調至0.9元(相當於預測股息率3.9%);並對2023年維持不派息的預測。
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