《回顧》恆指2023年累挫近14% 科指累跌近9%
恆指於去年累跌3,616點或逾15%後,今年呈先升後跌及持續「尋底」走勢。年初憧憬中國重啟經濟及復常、本港及內地恢復免檢疫通關下,恆指至今年1月27日曾創上半年高位22,700點,較去年底收市位計一度累積升幅逾2,900點或14%。不過,美國通脹持續高企,美聯儲局相繼於2月、3月、5月及7月各加息25個基點,令聯邦基金利率目標區間高企於5.25厘至5.5厘水平,兼且市場關注中美關係緊張、人民幣及內地經濟復甦轉弱。
恆指2023年以來累跌2,734點或13.8%;國指全年累跌936點或14%;恆生科指全年更累挫累跌364點或8.8%。而恆指連跌四年,累跌11,142點或39.5%。
恆指2023年每季度日均成交額按季持續轉弱,從今年首季及第二季日均成交額各1,278億及1,028億元,第三季跌穿一千億元水平至984億元,10月至12月日均成交額各為788億元、956億元及984億元。
【一月衝高位 二月急回吐】
年初中國氣球出現在美國領空引發疑氣球風波,中美關係轉趨緊張,恆指2月份累跌2,056點或9%,以點數計已幾近全數蒸發1月份累升2,060點,面對美國通脹再度升溫,聯儲局加息周期勢延長,令港股回吐。3月股市震盪,美矽谷銀行突月初關閉掀金融恐慌,瑞銀以30億瑞郎收購瑞信,瑞士金融機構同時將瑞信的160億瑞郎額外一級資本(AT1)債券面值撇賬至零,一度引起市場憂慮,恆指首季累跌618點或3.1%。
4月初內地公布首季GDP增長4.5%,好過市場預期,不過從5月公布4月「三頭馬車」經濟數據顯示,內地樓市銷售及消費轉弱,差過市場預期。投資者關注歐美地區外部需求承壓,中美關係緊張等因素。恆指第二季累跌1,483點或逾7%,恆生科指第二季累跌392點或9.1%。
【美息續高企 內地復甦弱】
踏入第三季,港股受到美息持續高企及內地經濟面臨挑戰的夾擊下,港股日均成交額已回落至逾900億至1,000億元水平,9月底美匯指數攀升至106水平,香港銀行同業隔夜拆息攀升,第三季恆指累跌1,106點或5.85%。
內地10月官方製造業PMI跌至49.5遜預期再陷收縮水平,投資者憂慮美息或會長處高企,加上以巴局勢緊張。雖然「國家隊」中央匯金於同月增持四大國有商銀A股,又增發1萬億元人民幣國債支持災後重建等工作,但無助投資者入市信心。此外,內房銷售數據持續疲弱,市場對民營內房信貸違約危機的憂慮揮之不去,恆指於12月初接連失守萬七及一度跌穿萬六關水平,於12月11日一度跌穿萬六關水平(曾低見15,972點,較去年年底曾累跌3,809點或19.3%)。
12月中旬美聯儲維持利率不變,第三次連續暫停加息,公開市場委員會預測中位數顯示2024年將減息75個點子至4.6厘,在明年美國減息憧下,港股隨外圍略為回升,而恆指今年第四季以來累跌762點或4.3%,恆生科指四季累跌156點或4%。(ta/w/t)
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