《大行報告》里昂料內房市場明年仍然艱難 市場最關心開發商違約風險
里昂發表報告指,明年繼續是內地樓市艱難的一年,相信住宅銷售仍然疲弱,反映需求不足、市場信心未恢復。目前的放寬政策已被證明效用不足,市場關注重點仍然是內房債務違約風險,除非當局在再融資方面推出更多政策支持,否則可能出現更多違約個案。
該行認為,國營房企將會持續取得市場份額,不過擁有較佳土地儲備的發展商將會跑出,明年行業首選為華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)和越秀地產(00123.HK)。
該行預期,明年內地住宅銷售按年下跌10.8%,較高端城市可能受惠1萬億元人民幣的城中村改造投資,但低端城市仍然受困。整體而言,尚未見到樓市下行周期的低谷。
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