中芯國際(00981.HK)料將維持中規中矩派息 明年未有大幅增長動力
中芯國際(00981.HK)隔晚(9日)披露截至9月底止第三季業績。聯合首席執行官趙海軍預計,通常行業取態在年底會更審慎,相信公司於第四季會維持中規中矩的派息,同時銷售收入將略有增長,毛利率繼續受到新產品所帶來的壓力,料介乎16%至18%,由於過去幾年集團一直擴產和維持高資本開支,公司毛利率亦會面對更多壓力。他預期,明年整體經營環境穩定,但未有大幅增長的動力,公司仍要等待宏觀環境復甦。
他提到,今年的資本開支主要用於擴產和生產基建,首三季累計約51億美元,基於地緣政治對項目交付週期的影響會愈來愈複雜,為保持項目達產,公司會容許供應商提前交付。目前全球供應鏈的供交付週期已經好轉,因此今年底前的產量將較預期大幅增加。他預期全年支本開支將上調至約75億美元。
他預期,公司將呈現「W型復甦」,並解釋是由於之前預期下行週期會有「U型復甦」,即今年底會有所恢復,惟以目前情況來看,整個週期要放大一倍至需時兩年,因此是呈「W」的狀態,而中間的小幅反彈正正是第三季與手機相關的小陽春。他指出,今年的手機集中在第三季發布,吸引了很多多年未換手機的特定人群,而不是手機有特別的亮點。他相信,這一波手機潮不會帶動整個行情出現變化,預計明年手機的銷售量將按年持平,因此不會對手機前景特別樂觀。
他提到,由於地緣政治風險,很多公司正在各地建設產能,會密切留意會否增加行業競爭,但相信會出現產能過剩的問題。因此,集團會與客戶保持溝通,在出產時計算好客戶的訂單需求。
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