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標普下調本港今年樓價預測 料明年或最多再跌一成
阿思達克 11-08 17:51
標普全球評級發表報告,將今年住宅樓價預測下調至持平至下跌3%,明年則再跌5%至10%,主要是經濟增長疲弱、利率上升和供應過剩帶來沉重壓力,預期明年本港樓市將是艱難的一年。報告又指,假設本港發展商可繼續獲得市場份額,並以利潤換取銷售量,料在不會引發財務問題下,發展商可承受達20%的價格調整。 標普全球評級信貸分析師Edward Chan表示,大多數香港發展商可能會犧牲利潤來實現合約銷售目標,故在2023年至2025年期間的利潤有機會收縮,或會推高槓桿率;若在2025年美國10年期國債孳息率穩定於4厘,本港樓價或較今年9月水平跌20%;而若明年樓價跌兩成,發展商的槓桿率將在2025年或2026年上升0.4倍至0.8倍。 他指,因經濟疲弱及利率上升,正拉低樓價並抑制需求,港人的抵押貸款負擔急劇上升,料今年一手交投可能繼續疲弱,只有1.1萬宗左右,到明年維持1.1萬宗至1.3萬宗,遠低於2017至2021年期間每年1.5萬至2.1萬宗。
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