《大行報告》華泰証券:審慎應對內房市場弱復甦 關注優質龍頭國企機遇
華泰証券發表報告指出,今年對於內地房地產而言又是歷史性的一年,行業有待改善,企業盈利延續尋底,與此同時,中央首次定調房地產行業供求關係發生重大變化,疊加城中村、保障房等在戰略層面開始推進,似乎看到房地產行業新模式慢慢拉開序幕,逐步迎來一個新的境況。
該行認為要審慎應對內房市場弱復甦,房企銷售方面,內地6月後百強房企銷售增速再次出現按年下滑,首九個月累計按年跌11.8%,表現弱於行業。在市場步入調整後,央/國企銷售增速相對民企仍有優勢,但領先幅度從4月的92個百分點收窄至9月的24個百分點。融資方面,首九個月房地產各融資渠道累計淨償還2,112億元人民幣,企業融資有待改善。房地產行業債券到期規模收縮,市場對於部分混合所有制和民營房企現金流關注度提升。投資方面,拿地集中度進一步提升,央國企佔比小幅下降,龍頭房企高度聚焦核心城市。
此外,該行期待更多城市落實優化地產政策,並與其他一籃子經濟政策形成合力,共同推動經濟恢復向好,穩定居民房價預期和購房需求。該行看好在主流城市有充裕貨值和較強補貨能力的優質房企。重點推薦開發商越秀地產(00123.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)及中國海外(00688.HK)等;以及物管公司中海物業(02669.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、濱江服務(03316.HK)等(目標價及評級見另表)。
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