《大行報告》招商證券降海底撈(06862.HK)評級至「中性」 目標價下調至18.1元
海底撈(06862.HK)以26億日圓(約1,739萬美元)向特海國際(09658.HK)收購JAPAN HAI全部股權。招商證券降發表報告指,截至2023年10月31日,JAPAN HAI持有並管理一家位於日本長野縣輕井澤的酒店,但處於虧損狀態。JAPAN HAI在2022財年和2021財年分別虧損82萬美元和63萬美元。JAPAN HAI計劃開發一個混合式溫泉渡假村,預計於2027年竣工。
報告指,海底撈上半年的資產負債表上有近60億元人民幣的淨現金,可以輕鬆地為收購和開發混合式溫泉渡假村提供資金,初步估計為3億至5億元人民幣,但鑒於JAPAN HAI的業務規模較小,該行認為今次收購不足以提供公司所尋求的多元化。
考慮到JAPAN HAI的規模相對較小,招商證券對海底撈2023至2025財年各年每股收益預測分別微降0.1%、1%和1.4%。但是,根據2024財年每股稀釋盈利預測的21倍目標市盈率,將目標價從24.8港元下調至18.1港元。該目標市盈率代表了海底撈自上市以來的最低市盈率,已經低於歷史均值超過1.5個標準差,考慮到整個行業復甦速度的不確定性,該行認為這是合理水平,並下調該股至「中性」評級。
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