《大行報告》瑞銀料明年港樓價跌逾一成 普遍下調地產股目標價 降新地評級至「中性」
瑞銀髮表報告,將今年本港樓價預測由上升5%,下調到持平至上升5%,並預期明年跌逾10%,以反映中小型發展商高負債風險,以及高息環境維持更長時間。該行估計今年至明年,寫字樓租金下跌3%至5%,在供應過剩下,空置率進一步上升。年初至今,本港零售銷售增長超過19%,但估計明年顯着放緩,主要因爲內地旅客及本地居民消費疲弱。該行選擇性偏好地產發展商,多於零售及寫字樓物業公司。
該行指,17間中小型上市發展商當中,10間的淨負債比率超過50%,截至6月底持有14,500個未出售單位,估計這些高槓杆公司可能以低價沽貨,以刺激銷量及加快現金流轉,即使當局推出樓市放寬措施,樓價升幅亦會受限。在美國聯儲局開始減息之前,住宅樓價不會顯着復甦。
報告指,地產發展商現價較資產淨值(NAV)折讓幅度達58%,接近1998年低谷的61%,維持恆地(00012.HK)的「買入」評級,主要受惠農地轉換進展較快,而相關因素未於股價反映。信置(00083.HK)評級由「中性」上調至「買入」,主要因爲手頭淨現金強勁,相當於市值的60%。新地(00016.HK)評級由「買入」下調至「中性」、長實集團(01113.HK)維持「中性」,主要因爲每股派息可能令市場失望,股息率並不吸引。該行亦下調多隻地產股的目標價。(詳見另文)
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