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《大行報告》建銀國際降康師傅(00322.HK)目標價至13元 估值不高評級「跑贏大市」
阿思達克 10-11 14:25
建銀國際發表報告指,雖然內地旅遊需求上升,但第三季的消費情緒仍較預期弱,將康師傅(00322.HK)2023財年下半年的方便麵業務收入增長預測由原先4.9%下調至4.5%。不過,該行相信,較清涼的天氣將有利於公司第四季的銷售,並可能會部分抵銷第三季的溫和銷售。該行又預計,由於消費情緒低迷、新飲品子行業的競爭加劇及連鎖咖啡店日益普及,飲品銷量增長將由今年上半年的9.5%放緩至下半年的8.6%。該行將集團下半年的整體銷售增長預測從7.6%下調至6.9%,而上半年則為7%。 該行表示,康師傅已經實施銷售折扣和促銷等政策,以降低渠道庫存,這將對其第三季的毛利率產生負面影響。此外,第三季食用糖價格按年增27%,亦可能會降低飲品業務的毛利率。同時,由於全球緊張局勢加劇,棕櫚油和PET價格可能會在第四季飆升。因此,該行將下半年方便麵的毛利率預測從27.4%下調至26.7%,飲品毛利率則料由31.3%降至30.9%。該行又預期,集團下半年的綜合毛利率將按年減少0.4個百分點至29.5%,另由於銷售低迷,行銷和促銷費用增加,將下半年息稅前利潤率預測降0.6個百分點至4.7%。 該行下調集團2023財年的盈測8%,以反映銷售增長較預期緩慢及毛利率於下半年有較大壓力,目標價由14.2元上調至13元,維持「跑贏大市」評級,並認為該股估值不高。
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