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《大行報告》中金:內地通脹釋放積極信號 樓市「三支箭」有助穩銷售
中金近日發表報告表示,內地公布8月通脹數據如期回升,CPI按年從-0.3%轉正至0.1%,PPI按年從-4.4%回升至-3.0%,略高於該行原預期各0和-3.1%。CPI按月升0.3%,高於去年同期,恢復至往年季節性均值。PPI按月升0.2%,過去九個月來第一次轉正。 該行指,8月CPI和PPI增速雙雙改善,其中CPI重新轉為正增長、PPI降幅進一步收窄。增速改善的幅度中,基數帶來的翹尾因素貢獻較大,新增漲價因素也有貢獻。CPI中豬肉、燃油、旅遊等項,PPI中石油化工、金屬價格等項,對總體價格拉動較大。暑期出遊旺盛,對相關領域消費價格形成提振;政策提振和低庫存下,內需相關的金屬價格上漲。總體而言,價格的變化反映了內需有邊際回暖跡像,未來關注穩增長政策的落地實效。 往前看,隨著豬油高基數消退,以及穩增長政策發力,內地未來數月CPI和PPI按年均將進一步上行。近期出台的新一輪化債方案仍遵循「市場化」、「屬地化」原則,但可以緩解城投債再融資的流動性風險,減輕了地方政府順周期緊縮的程度,並有更多空間和精力做好三保和逆周期調節(基建投資)。而樓市三支箭(降首付、降利率、城中村改造)有助於穩銷售、增加居民收入和提振房地投資。目前政策仍集中在穩信用,而寬財政空間更大,穩增長政策空間仍大,穩內需仍有後勁。(wl/u) ~
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