《大行報告》富瑞下調領展(00823.HK)目標價至50元 偏好恆地(00012.HK)及希慎(00014.HK)
富瑞發表研究報告,認為領展(00823.HK)早前出乎預期宣布供股屬拐點,主要不確定性已消除,但長期利率逐漸走高則對其投資前景帶來障礙。該行預期領展明年3月底止2024財年每基金單位分派按年跌6%,市場則料跌1%。該行估算未來併購活動或潛在推升純利介乎3%至6%。利率見頂是潛在估值重評的關鍵,微觀因素則需更長時間展現,予領展「買入」評級,目標價由58元降至50元。
報告稱,隨著重新開放及內生增長改善,領展已準備好恢復增長。管理層展望2024財年本港續租租金有中至高單位數增長,內地續租租金則料有高單位數增長。該行認為或過於保守,因本港本年至今零售銷售累升逾20%,餐飲(佔領展租戶組合27.6%)趨勢更跑贏商品。不過,內地復甦慢過預期及超市銷售正常化或阻礙達成續租租金目標。
富瑞降領展2024至2025財年每基金單位分派預測6%至7%,即使利率持續高企,惟風險回報趨向上行,因現時預測股息率達7%;不過,該行在本港地產股中更偏好恆地(00012.HK)及希慎(00014.HK)。
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