中國軟件國際（00354）：深度受益華為王者歸來的IT龍頭
科技巨頭華為近期迎來多項利好，除了中期業績利潤端大幅回升，經營業績持續向好，近期上線的搭載麒麟芯片的Mate 60 系列手機受到市場熱捧，進一步傳遞出華為即將王者歸來的信號。近日，“鴻蒙之父”王成錄表示，華為將於明年推出鴻蒙PC版系統，個人電腦行業的市場格局有望進一步改變。
華為的重磅利好直接帶動了產業鏈上市企業的股價表現，其中華為核心軟件供應商中國軟件國際（00354.HK）近期股價創下半年新高，底部上升近30%。
中軟國際是華為“同舟共濟”戰略合作伙伴。公司深度參與華為消費者終端、鴻蒙、AI大模型、MetaERP等核心業務，通過多年合作，華為業務已經成為公司營收的“半壁江山”。
2022年下半年，受美國製裁影響，華為對消費端業務進行了調整，中軟國際相關業務亦有所承壓，2022年全年利潤出現上市以來首次下滑。近期華為攜麒麟芯片王者歸來，受益於華為手機高升需求，中軟國際相關業務有望迎來底部反轉，重回高峯狀態。
中信證券研報指出，華為手機的放量將加速鴻蒙單框架的替代，並帶動百億應用遷移軟件服務市場空間的新增。隨着近期華為正式推出Harmony NEXT系統，並宣佈不再兼容安卓系統，意味着現有手機應用需要重新開發適用於鴻蒙系統的版本。這一變化將利好相關軟件服務廠商，其中中軟國際深度參與鴻蒙研發落地和更新迭代，對鴻蒙系統有着代碼級理解，亦是HDC鴻蒙生態合作中唯一的簽約IT服務公司，可以説是鴻蒙生態中最根正苗紅的軟件服務商。根據市場上活躍度較高的100萬個APP應用來測算，單是鴻蒙生態遷移就有望讓中軟國際觸達高達200億的增量市場空間。
作為鴻蒙產業的核心夥伴，中軟國際還參與了明年即將上線的鴻蒙PC適配優化及商業版研發工作，近期更是正式開設了“開源鴻蒙英才班”，培養新一代開源鴻蒙技術領軍人才，公司在鴻蒙生態領域的位勢極為凸顯。
作為金牌供應商，中軟國際還全方位助力Meta ERP的研發落地、更新迭代，以及商業推廣。我國高端ERP國產替代空間廣闊，華為 Meta ERP 產品成熟度較高，將有望實現在市場快速商業化推廣，是SAP、Oracle在國內有力競爭者，而中軟國際也有望成為MetaERP市場快速普及的持續受益者。
隨着華為業務逐步迴歸、鴻蒙生態迅速擴張，以及MetaERP的商業落地帶來的增量市場，中軟國際業績有望重回高增長軌道，利潤水平亦大概率實現回升，若按公司2024收入300億的營收，按5%利潤率測算，公司2024年有望實現15億的淨利潤，以20倍PE測算，對應300億人民幣市值，較當前有一倍的上升空間。
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