植耀辉:观望内地经济数据 港股难有突破
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,港股上周四(31日)在8月最後一个交易日走势偏软,恒指收市跌100点或0.55%。上周初受A股下调印花税及推出一系列针对内房措施之消息刺激而一度重上18,700点,不过企业业绩缺乏惊喜,投资者则静待更多具针对性措施出台,最终8月份恒指仍累跌近1,700点或8.5%,科指亦跌8.1%。在观望气氛持续,加上投资者续关注内地经济数据表现,相信港股短期仍难有突破,并续於18,000至18,700点水平上落。
股份则跟进笔者收息爱股中远国际(00517.HK)。该公司已於早前发布中期业绩,股东应占溢利增加1倍至3.36亿元,每股派息22.5港仙,维持接近100%派息比率。以昨日收市价计,预测息率已达6.8厘。假设下半年盈利表现与上半年相若,以及派息比率不变,意味息率届时将高於13厘。中远国际最大卖点仍是持有高达60亿港元净现金。上半年其财务收益(主要为银行存款利息)便较去年按年增加442%至1.2亿元,现金回报率由去年0.73%急升至4.01%。由於美息将会於高位维持一段时间,下半年相关利息收入可能更「和味」。
另外,其与挪威佐敦集团共同控制之中远佐敦亦有惊喜,溢利贡献增加1.7倍,今年6月底中远佐敦亦与新时代造船有限公司签订集装箱新造船项目,并会於2025年及2026年交付,为未来业绩带来一定支持。
不过最大卖点仍是在可见一段时间内,中远国际息率将相当吸引,所以笔者持货之同时,亦会伺机继续吸纳,并作为投资组合内收息股之首选。
(笔者为证监会持牌人,持有中远国际股份)
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港股维持争持格局 恒指料18,500点上落
耀才研究部称,美股上周五(1日)个别发展,虽然非农新增职位胜预期,但失业率则高於预期,道指升115点,标普及纳指则变化不大。今日(4日)为美国劳动节假期休市。至於反映中概股表现之金龙指数则升超过3%。
港股方面,恒指上周四(8月31日)高开低走,最高曾升至18,667点,惟未能企稳之余,A股走势转弱亦拖累港股表现,恒指最终收报18,382点,下趺100点或0.55%,科指亦跌0.4%。全日成交则急增至1,365.4亿元。总结8月表现,恒指累跌近1,700点或8.5%,科指跌幅则达到8.1%。A股8月表现亦差,当中上综指累跌5.2%,深成指则累跌6.9%。本月大市能否有好表现,须视乎内地经济数据是否有改善以及更多政策憧憬,预期恒指暂继续维持争持格局不变,於18,500点水平上落。
从技术走势分析,恒指「两连阴」,20天线(18,535点)阻力亦相当明显,意味恒指一日未能企稳该水平,走势仍偏淡,下方支持继续先看10天线亦即18,085点水平。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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