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植耀輝:恆指8月走勢仍差 Nvidia(NVDA.US)候機增持
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,恆指昨日(24日)在科技股支持下急升366點。雖然連升第三個交易日,但暫時整個8月計仍大跌1,866點或9.3%。港股不濟原因過去數週已講到「膩」,亦不想再重複有關觀點。只想說除非內房債務問題有解決方案,否則即使有反彈但亦難有太大寄望矣! 業績股方面,先談快手-W(01024.HK)。此股自上市以來筆者基本上一直看淡,原因只得一個,就是估值高得「離譜」。不過自今年第一季其Non-GAAP經調整利潤首次出現盈利開始,對其看法稍為有所改善。至於今次中期業績雖然早已發盈喜,但表現尚算理想,第二季平均日活躍人數達到3.76億,按年及按季分別上升8%及0.5%,每位日活躍用戶平均線上營銷收入則為38.2元人民幣,按年及按季分別上升21%及9%。在經營效率持續改善,預期下半年營收表現料可維持增長。只是估值偏高對筆者而言仍是一大考慮,而且增速會否持續放緩亦值得關注。所以雖然筆者預期業績對短期股價會有一定利好,但亦未宜過份憧憬,股份若反彈至70至72元水平,持貨者可考慮先行減持。 最後當然要談談新一代股王Nvidia(NVDA.US)之最新成績表。原先市場對其第二季業績預測已相當進取,怎知其業績仍然遠優於預期:收入大增1倍至135.1億美元,毛利率由去年同期45.9%升至71.2%,每股經調整後盈利按年增429%至2.7美元。其第三季展望亦相當有驚喜,預期收入將達到160億美元,按年大升1.7倍,毛利率則為72.5%。業績及展望充份反映AI芯片之應用有多火熱。由於Nvidia業績如此強勁加上樂觀展望,筆者對AI板塊發展前景依然充滿信心,持有之AI相關股會繼續持有,並會伺機再作增持。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,持有Nvidia股份) *********** 加息陰霾再現拖累美股 恆指萬八關上落 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(24日)美股三大指數下挫,受加息陰霾再現拖累,科技股急跌,納指收挫1.9%,道指及標普500指數亦分別跌1.1%及1.4%。至於反映中概股表現之金龍指數則下跌不足1%。 港股方面,在新經濟股造好支持,恆指一度急升427點,高見18,272點,後市前升幅仍能維持,最終收報18,212點,上升366點或2.1%,科指升幅達到3.7%,收報4,158點,全日成交金額回升至1,015.2億元。成份股中碧桂園系升幅逾一成,另藥明生物(02269.HK)在績後亦見資金追捧,股價急升8.5%。收市後美團-W(03690.HK)公布之第二季業績表現理想,對港股料有一定支持。不過投資者仍關注Jackson Hole年會上鮑威爾講話,特別是美股隔晚急挫,對今日(25日)港股或會有一定影響,預期恆指將於18,000點水平上落。 技術走勢方面,恆指「三連升」,走勢似有所改善,但10天線(18,250點)阻力似非輕,若短期未能突破,則港股有較大會於18,000點附近徘徊。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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