《大行報告》中金:人行有望下調準備金25個基點 刺激信貸投放關鍵是降企業信用風險
中金公司發表報告指,人行上日(15日)下調中期借貸便利(MLF)及逆回購利率,降息時間早過市場預期,反映明確的貨幣政策加碼信號,預期本月21日將會下調貸款市場報價利率(LPR)。為加大對房地產市場的刺激力度,估計5年LPR下調幅度可能高於1年LPR,假設5年LPR下調20點子、1年LPR下調10點子,估計銀行年化淨息差將收窄6點子、營業收入減少2%、淨利潤減少5%。
報告指,由於9月信貸投放及國債發行規糢較大,可能形成流動性缺口,預計存款準備金率將會下調25點子,在此假設下,銀行今年淨息差將擴闊0.7點子,營業收入增加0.2%,淨利潤增加0.5%。
中金認為,7月金融數據反映信貸需求較為疲弱,相信刺激信貸投放的關鍵,是降低企業主體信用風險、改善投資回報預期。
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