《大行報告》大摩:內地7月經濟數據低迷 房地產需更多協調寬鬆措施
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,人民銀行分別將中期借貸便利操作(MLF)利率及逆回購操作利率下調15點子及10點子,下調步伐較預期快,為下周一貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調約15至20點子奠定基礎。
該行重申,考慮到中國7月份經濟數據較低迷,以及部分房地產開發商再次出現流動性問題,預期當局將加大逆周期措施寬鬆力度,從而穩定需求及降低經濟陷入債務或通縮循環的風險。
大摩預期中央或需要實施更加協調的貨幣、財政和房地產寬鬆措施,才可增強政策寬鬆的傳導效應,預測未來一至兩個月將出台進一步放寬一線城市住房限購、額外財政支持去促進基礎設施建設,以及針對高端製造業定向減稅的措施,中央亦可能會在今年秋季舉行的三中全會前,推出債務置換等政策以加快解決地方債務風險。
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