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惠譽:內地快遞行業價格戰重燃機率微
評級機構惠譽表示,上半年內地快遞行業的業務量在低基數的基礎上按年反彈16.2%,但兩年複合年均增長率僅為9.8%,相比2022年以前逾25%的水平略顯溫和。不過,惠譽認為價格戰重燃的可能性不大,因為快遞行業的集中度已經提高,主要營運商將更多以質取勝,而非單純靠打價格戰。 惠譽預計,假定線上商品零售實現高個位數至低兩位數增長且網上零售滲透率略有提高,今年快遞行業的業務量和營業收入將分別有望實現中至高兩位數和低至中兩位數的增長。當前增速較疫情前水平放緩主要由於消費者重歸線下零售和體驗式消費、中國的網上零售滲透率已然高企以及消費意願的覆蘇弱於預期。 然而,自2021年以來一系列收併購推動市場集中度提升後,競爭格局已有改善。前八大營運商按營收計的合並市場份額從2021年的80.5%升至2022年的84.5%,這使得通過降價來爭奪市場份額的迫切度下降。
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