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惠譽:若內銀降低存量房貸利率 淨利潤或跌1%至5%
評級機構惠譽表示,中資銀行與RMBS資產受存量房貸利率下調的潛在影響較小。其分析研究顯示,若中資銀行在央行的敦促下降低存量房貸利率,中國銀行業的淨利潤或將下降1%至5%。 惠譽稱,人行有關部門負責人在近期的新聞發布會上表示,鼓勵銀行通過與借款人自主協商變更合同約定,或新發放貸款置換原來的存量貸款的方式下調存量房貸利率。惠譽認為,該指導意見旨在一定程度上緩解當前的房貸提前還貸潮。截至今年第一季底,住房抵押貸款在銀行業全部貸款中佔比接近20%,若前述政策全面落實,則中資銀行的淨息差和盈利能力或將承壓。 惠譽估計,2018至2022年間發放的存量房貸利率目前處於5%左右的較高水平。相比當前4.20%的5年期LPR和4.14%的今年三月份個人住房貸款加權平均利率,銀行存量房貸利率下調空間可達到80個基點左右,但預計實際調整力度可能會更為溫和。 惠譽通過情景分析假設10%、30%或50%的存量房貸利率下調80個基點,以評估利率下調對銀行的影響。 在這三種情景下,銀行業的淨息差將分別收窄1、3、5個基點,淨利潤分別下降1%、3%和5%。國有銀行受影響程度略大於小型銀行受到的影響,因為前者貸款總額中的房貸佔比更高。 惠譽認為,強制性要求存量房貸利率全面下調的可能性不大,因為政府已公開表態稱,存量房貸的利率調整應遵循市場化和法治化原則。此外,強制性統一全面下調存量房貸利率也有悖於政府旨在緩解房貸提前還貸潮導致的銀行盈利壓力這一初衷。
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