研報掘金丨國信證券:海底撈恢復節奏居行業前列,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯8月2日丨國信證券研報指出,海底撈(6862.HK)2023H1預計實現淨利潤不低於22億元,利潤表現超出我們前期的業績前瞻預期(16億元)。據近期跟蹤,2023年1月,海底撈同店翻枱率約恢復至2022年同期的100%,4月衝高突破140%+後有所回落(去年相對低基數);截至6月,海底撈同店翻枱率同比恢復至120%,恢復節奏居行業前列。上半年開店態度仍相對審慎,期待下半年開店端的積極信號。在盈利&運營成熟度不斷改善前提下,公司在開店戰略上不排除會採取更為積極的態度。啄木鳥計劃以來公司單店模型保本點持續優化下行,經營效率大幅提升、利潤率也強勢反彈,目前估值已經具備較高性價比,預計投資吸引力將逐步凸顯。未來核心觀測點在於能否重啟批量開店,若在翻枱率修復的基礎上展現出重啟開店的積極信號,則將進一步帶動估值中樞回升,維持“買入”評級。
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