瑞銀:內地更多寬鬆措施有望陸續出台
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室發表報告指,內地7月政治局會議為下半年確立更清晰的穩增長政策基調,更多寬鬆措施有望陸續推出。該行預計內地全年GDP增長將略高於5%,倘若有更強的政策利多,則存在上調的可能性。
該行提到,民營企業發展方面, 政治局會議強調要「活躍資本市場」,這與前幾次會議提到的「穩定資本市場」表述截然不同。此外,穩就業被提升至戰略高度,會議提出將採取更多支持措施,特別是將切實優化民營企業發展環境,因其在經濟中發揮著重要作用。該行認為,進一步放鬆監管可能是提振企業信心、提高青年就業率的有效方式。對於民企交易和IPO的明確支持是未來的觀察重點。
瑞銀建議投資者偏向於成長型類股,以把握短期內支持性措施推出帶來的機會,並依然繼續青睞槓鈴策略,同時佈局於高股息收益率的防禦股和經濟復甦受益者。固定收益方面,該行繼續建議對投資級債券採取槓鈴策略,並對中資房企高收益債保持謹慎。人民幣方面,具體的政策措施支持該行對美元兌人民幣將在未來6至12個月走弱的觀點。
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