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《大行報告》富瑞:京穗深積極呼應中央政策 料振內房需求措施更早及更強地出台
富瑞發表報告表示,中央政府近期對內房行業釋出正面語調,並提振了投資者信信心,而國家住建部聲明為全國範圍內貸款利率的放鬆鋪平了道路,料一線城市應該是最大的受益者,上行週期時所發出的嚴格限制逐漸放鬆。若相關建議的舉措未能提振需求,料當局可能將放鬆其他限制,該行對未來3至6個月內地房地產行業持樂觀態度,雖然部分投資者可能因銷售疲弱而進行獲利了結。 該行指,內地對內房行業政策轉變為「在供需新動態中優化政策,支持基本需求和升級需求」,顯示比以前更加支持,並料就寬鬆政策給出了方向,第一是放寬符合「首套」貸款價值資格的所有權/抵押貸款要求、第二是降低「首套房」首付比例和抵押貸款利率、第三是降低升級需求的稅收。從周末,北京、深圳、廣州地方政府也呼應中央政治局會議積極的政策基調。該行相信需求端的措施將比該行最初預期的更早、更強有力地到來。 就內房股方面,富瑞指過去一周內房開發商受政策憧憬和空頭回補的影響,股價累漲15%至40%。隨著前景的改善,該行對未來3至6個月的市場和房地產行業持樂觀態度,考慮到對實體市場的滯後影響,當城市級政策開始推出時,一些投資者可能會先行沽售相關股票。 富瑞指看好華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK),鑑於相關公司在內地一線及二線城市可供銷售的資源豐富較高,料可從銷售復甦中受益。
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