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《大行報告》匯豐研究上調中鐵建(01186.HK)目標價 偏好中國建築國際(03311.HK)及中鐵(00390.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告指出,中共中央政治局於本周一(24日)召開會議,討論上半年經濟形勢和下半年展望。會議強調,要研究化解地方債務風險,逐步放寬房地產調控。市場反應正面,該行相信將有助於逐步緩解地方政府的財政壓力。 該行認為,內地上半年經濟總體復甦速度遜市場預期,地方政府專項債券發行也放緩,上半年達2.3萬億元人民幣,佔全年額度的61%,相對於去年上半年為3.4萬億元人民幣(佔去年額度的93%)。該行料第三季地方政府專項債券將有所增加,並允許更多的融資渠道。惟地方政府專項債券餘額已達歷史高位,該行相信不太可能出現進一步強力刺激政策,預期建築業將在溫和的政策支持下穩步增長。 此外,該行指建築板塊過去三個月平均股價下跌8%,反映經濟復甦放緩及市場對「中特估」的憂慮。行業中,該行偏好具有領先組裝合成建築法(MiC)技術的中國建築國際(03311.HK),以及具有高股本回報率及盈利增長目標的中國中鐵(00390.HK),另將中鐵建(01186.HK)H股目標價由8.7元上調至9元(見另表)。
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