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信銀國際上調本港GDP增長預測至4.5% 料聯儲局本月加息0.25厘
阿思達克 07-18 16:29
中信銀行(國際)首席經濟師卓亮預料,聯儲局將於本月加息最後一次,為0.25厘,主要是貨幣環境出現逆轉,物價上升受控,未來再次加息機會並不大,又預計將於明年上半年起減息。 他指,美國通脹放緩趨勢延續,預計下半年將逐漸接近2.0%的通脹目標,利率調整週期步入尾聲;他又指,美國經濟增長動力減弱,料未來將陷入結構性衰退的風險。 他表示,香港勞工市場保持暢旺,加上旅遊業復甦帶動零售銷售反彈、私人消費改善,料本地失業率有望於第三季跌穿3%,並將全年香港GDP增長預測由4%升至4.5%。他表示,若美國於7月加息0.25厘,料港元最優惠利率(P)亦會跟加0.125厘,惟其後再上調空間並不大。 另外,他表示仍維持全年樓市升5%預測,認為即使利率高企惟平穩,料會減少息口壓力。對於金管局近期減辣,他認為會有助改善成交量。 他表示,內地出口需求減弱,料服務業將成為今年內地經濟增長重點,若服務業下半年維持上半年錄得6.4%的增長相若,則有望令內地全年GDP達5%至5.4%以上。他預料,人行第二季的減息頻率及幅度溫和,預計下半年或會出現25個基點的存款準備金下調。(ca/u) ~
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