渣打料第三季美元兌人民幣上試7.3 下半年資本流出速度放緩
渣打中國宏觀策略部主管劉潔預期,第三季末美元兌人民幣將為1美元兌7.15元人民幣,至年底則為1美元兌7.05元人民幣。由於派息支出上升及中國與已發展市場經濟體的貨幣政策持續分歧,以致人民幣受壓,美元兌人民幣有機會於第三季上試7.3的水平。另外,該行預期下半年大規模資本流入的機會不大,但流出速度將會放緩,又認為目前中國的利率水平難以反彈,料將繼續維持於較低水平一段時間。
渣打大中華及北亞區首席經濟師丁爽認為,中國全國性發行消費券的機會非常低,因為成本太高,而且不能確定效率,料將繼續推出消費補貼、稅收優惠及支持行業等措施。而貨幣政策再放鬆的空間較低,目前主要是作為一個訊號作用。
渣打預計,中國政府可能會提升地方專項發債額度5,000億元人民幣,以彌補士地銷售收人下降的缺口,並放鬆一、二線城市的房屋限購政策。此外,政策性銀行或加大放貸力度,維持基建投資平穩。7月召開的中央政治局會議有望著力解決拖累私營市場投資的結構性阻礙。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.