《大行報告》高盛上調本港今年樓價預測至升5% 地產股目標價平均下調5%
高盛發表研究報告指出,金管局於上周五(7日)公布調整物業按揭貸款逆周期宏觀審慎監管措施,包括將價值1,500萬元或以下的自住物業按揭成數上限提升至70%;取消海外收入按揭申請人限制;價值1,500萬元以上至3,000萬元的自用住宅物業的按揭成數上限調整至60%等。
該行認為有關舉措有助於提高成交量及樓價,現時起如按揭貸款增長與房地產市場交易進一步上升,或有利於地產股股價。該行對本港今年樓價預測由原預期的跌10%,上調至升5%,同時維持2024至2026財年樓價預測各升4%。
此外,該行認為地產股面臨著美元息率上升及房地產市場疲弱的雙重阻力,對地產股的目標價平均下調5%,但銀行股則至少受惠於淨息差較高的影響。該行預期住宅成交量將回復至正常,或高於正常水平。另維持對其所覆蓋的股份中,長實(01113.HK)、中銀香港(02388.HK)與匯控(00005.HK)的「買入」評級(見另表)。
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