瑞銀張寧料政策支持或溫和加碼 今年GDP增5.2%
瑞銀投資銀行研究部高級中國經濟學家張寧估計,6月工業生產按年增速可能放緩至1.2%,社會消費品零售按年增速可能放緩至4.8%,6月房地產銷售按年增速可能下行。而第二季GDP按季增長動能可能大幅放緩,不過低基數推升按年增速至7.2%。政策支持則有望溫和加碼,預計2023年GDP增速為5.2%。
張寧表示,在近期央行降息之後,預計未來出台的政策支持可能包括進一步放鬆房地產政策;增強財政和准財政擴張力度,提振基建投資,但中央政府向居民部門直接發放大規模消費或收入補貼的可能性很小;進一步小幅降息。瑞銀預計在政策支持下,下半年消費活動會進一步溫和復甦、房地產活動可能逐步企穩,經濟增長動能或將有所回升,料第三、四季的GDP按年增速為4.3%和4.8%,帶動2023年全年GDP增速約為5.2%。
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