植耀輝:港股七月有望反彈 太古(00019.HK)仍值得持有
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股在買賣兩閒之情況下,恆指走勢未見有太大改善,只能於19,000點附近上落。人民幣匯價跌跌不休,加上續觀望政策消息,令投資氣氛相當審慎。踏入下半年,筆者對大市看法基本上沒有太大改變,仍傾向認為有力反彈,只是力度亦未必太大,目標看21,500至22,000點水平。雖然聯儲局息口去向漸趨明朗化,惟俄烏局勢卻又增添不少變數;不過最大憧憬依然來自內地政策方面,畢竟內地經濟正面對相當大挑戰,如何激活內需消費將是一大重點。國家總理李強在夏季達沃斯論壇上表示有信心實現年初定下之5%左右經濟增長目標,市場解讀為將有更多刺激內需措施,且看短期會否有更多細節出台。
至於7月走勢如何,則筆者看法較樂觀。除了上文提到之政策憧憬外,統計恆指由1983年至今四十年7月之表現,有27年錄得升幅之餘,恆指亦未試過連續三年下跌(恆指2021及2022年分別大跌近10%及8%),在數據及實際情況支持下,相信港股7月有望造好,但亦謹記不宜過份樂觀,暫仍先看兩萬關能否突破。
股份方面,談談太古(00019.HK)。該公司本週宣布向大股東出售美國太古可口可樂業務,現金代價39億美元,交易完成後一半收益將用作向股東派發特別息。消息刺激股價造好。筆者本身已持有及研究該股一段時間,今次行動頗符合公司近年將業務重心轉移至大中華及東南亞地區之部署,作價則為經2022年經調整EBITDA之12.4倍亦屬合理。而且透過今次出售,令債務水平進一步跌至11.6%,在息口高企之情況下有利資金運用,除減債外亦可用於收購或進一步回購股份。筆者對太古看法仍正面,故會繼續視為投資組合內其中一隻長線持有之股份。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有太古A及太古B)
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金龍指數偏軟 恆指續萬九關上落
耀才研究部稱,美股隔晚(29日)大致造好,經濟數據表現理想,緩解投資者對美國經濟前景擔憂之情緒。道指及標普500指數造好,納指則微跌不足1點。至於反映中概股表現之金龍指數則下跌1.58%,連跌第二個交易日。
港股在期指結算日走勢未見改善之餘,恆指更一度大跌超過335點,低見18,837點,最終收報18,934點,下跌237點或1.24%,科指則收報3,933點,下跌1.7%,全日成交依然淡靜,只得821億元。成份股幾乎全線下跌,只得5隻股份上升,下跌股份中則以內需股跌勢最大,李寧(02331.HK)大跌逾6%。雖然今日半年結,惟相信大市反彈之機會不大,尤其是在投資者繼續觀望內地刺激措施消息下,相信港股仍處拉鋸,並繼續於19,000點關口上落。
至於技術走勢方面,恆指昨日以大陰燭下跌,走勢再度轉弱,由於多個技術指標如MACD等均續見轉弱,若進一步失守6月26日低位18,767點,則下方支持將下移至5月31日之18,044點水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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