重大工程加快進度，基建ETF升超3%
格隆匯6月27日丨基建板塊上升，中國中鐵、中國交建、國統股份、中國鐵建升超5%。
廣發基金基建50ETF、銀華基金基建ETF、華夏基金基建50ETF、國泰基金基建ETF升超3%。
基建ETF跟蹤的是中證基建工程指數，該指數從滬深市場中選取建築與工程、建築裝修行業的上市公司證券作為指數樣本，以反映基建工程領域相關上市公司證券的整體表現，該指數前十大權重股包括中國建築、中國中鐵、中國 鐵建、中國電建、中國交建等，前十大之和為59.75%。
消息面上，近期，全國多個重點交通項目加緊建設，掀起施工熱潮。基建通數據顯示，僅近半個月相關部門就批覆了17項投資額在10億元以上的重大公路交通工程。專家指出，今年以來，基建相關重大項目儲備較多，隨着穩增長訴求增強，後續存量項目或加快落地，助力擴大有效投資、穩定經濟大盤。
從基本面看，2023年1-5月廣義基建投資同比增長9.53%，增幅收窄0.27%，狹義基建即基礎設施投資(不含電力、熱力、燃氣及水生產和供應業）同比增長7.5%，增幅收窄1.0%。從基建細分領域看，電力、熱力、燃氣及水的生產和供應業投資同比增長27.6%，增幅擴大3.2%，交通運輸、倉儲和郵政業投資同比增長6.9%，增幅收窄1.2%，水利、環境和公共設施管理業投資同比增長4.7%，增幅收窄0.8%。雖然基建投資保持較快增長速度，但增速已連續三個月下滑，加劇了市場對基建全年景氣度的擔憂。
國信證券表示，基建投資增速階段性回落加重市場擔憂情緒，但隨着項目開工投資額修復，專項債加速發行，全年基建投資有望進入持續加速通道。
基建資金充足，項目端景氣度是核心變量。基建資金端看，1-4月，固投資金來源中，國家預算內資金+43%（固投中國家預算內超7成投向基建），專項債發行規模+16.7%，城投債淨融資+28.8%。基建項目端看，1-5月，全國開工項目投資額29.7萬億元，同比-6.6%。整體看來今年基建資金相對充裕，今年缺項目的壓力仍然高於缺資金的壓力。
國泰君安認為，國際環境複雜嚴峻，國內結構調整壓力較大，經濟恢復基礎尚不穩固。政策要求加大宏觀政策調控力度、着力擴大有效需求、做強做優實體經濟。6月上旬逆回購和MLF利率下調10個基點，20日1年期和5年期LPR下調10個基點至3.55%和4.2%。覆盤歷史財政發力穩經濟增長階段基建超額收益明顯，如2021年11月到2022年3月期間，預期三季度政策財政發力基建穩經濟增長，基建資金來源擴大將驅動基建實物工作量和龍頭公司訂單加速，基本面預期改善將迎超額收益行情。
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