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瑞銀:LGFV債務問題嚴峻程度差異大 中央大規模救助可能性低
阿思達克 06-26 14:20
瑞銀大中華金融股票研究主管顏湄之表示,除了疫情後地方政府面臨的一般財政壓力及房地產下行外,各地地方政府融資平台(LGFV)債務問題的嚴峻程度有顯著差異,因為財力較弱的地區的再融資難度持續攀升。省級LGFV的償債能力似乎強於下級LGFV。雖然投資者基本認同瑞銀在最新報告中的估計,即截至2022年約25%的LGFV難以憑經營性加融資性現金流償付利息,但關鍵問題集中在LGFV違約對經濟的潛在影響,觸發系統性風險的概率以及未償債務的潛在風險解決方案。 顏湄之指,雖然有投資者期望出台由中央政府主導的全國性債務解決方案,但瑞銀認為國家救助仍是逐例開展,目前主要責任仍由省級地方政府承擔。另一方面,由於道德風險和龐大的LGFV債務規模,推出任何大規模債務置換的難度也相當大。 儘管該行認為目前來看中央政府採取任何大規模救助的可能性仍較低,地方政府在與銀行密切協作推進LGFV貸款重組,這被認為是更可行的解決方案。除貴州外,雲南、廣西等地的銀行也已開始實施試點。她預計,負面情緒將佔上風,初期銀行股估值可能下行。不過,一旦解決方案的不確定性消除,銀行股可能按解決時間表迎來估值修復。
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