東亞料內地全年經濟增6% 通脹維持1.5%
東亞銀行預期,內地經濟於今年下半年將繼續呈現良好復甦勢頭,全年經濟增長約6%,又料內地通脹維持於1.5%的溫和水平。
東亞銀行首席經濟師蔡永雄表示,今年第一季內地經濟受全面重啟,在私人消費反彈及利好政策支持等帶動下,實現穩健復甦。他預料消費及服務業復甦將繼續領先,科技及基建投資亦將保持穩定增長。整體而言,內需強韌有望鞏固其復甦步伐,並抵銷外圍環境不明朗的壓力。
他指,服務消費將成為亮點,多個服務行業,如旅遊、娛樂、餐飲及運輸服務等,將受惠於積壓需求釋放。他預計利好政策支持勢將延續,以提振消費、信心及就業表現,料續有具針對性的財政及貨幣政策寬鬆的空間。
對於人民銀行分別將1年期和5年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調10個基點,至3.55%和4.2%。蔡永雄指是預期之內,將兩者同時下降,是由於政策制定者意在穩定市場,不想釋放出訊號,令市場認為政府會大規模放水支持某一個行業。
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