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《大行報告》瑞銀普遍上調內銀目標價 升中行(03988.HK)評級至「買入」
阿思達克 06-16 09:59
瑞銀發表研究報告指,近日團隊到北京進行宏觀考察,期間與來自研究機構、企業、國有銀行及評級機構等專家交流,了解到近期宏觀經濟放緩,投資者目前最關注的是當局即將出台刺激政策的可能性,傾向同意如果經濟持續走軟,刺激措施可能會隨之而來。 該行認為,雖然內地經濟增長勢頭4月起減弱,但疫情後社會快速重新開放,在政府推動投資增長的情況下,今年全年中國GDP的5%增長目標仍然很可能實現,認為經濟增長繼續是首要任務,同時更關注國際安全。報告料政策制定者會密切關注經濟數據走勢,預期人民幣大幅貶值可能不是支持出口增長的政策選擇。 瑞銀專家預計今年內地房地產政策將小幅度放鬆,全年全國貸款增長估計不會顯著上升,預測將按年增長11%至12%,潛在的未償還按揭貸款利率下調措施出台,最多可能會對內地銀行淨息差帶來30個基點的影響,報告認為對政策制定者而言屬艱難決定。 瑞銀將內銀今明兩年收入預測平均下調6.9%及6.1%,盈利預測則下調1.2%及1.8%,對內銀維持較中性看法,當中較看好中國銀行(03988.HK),H股評級從「中性」上調至「買入」,目標價由3元上調至3.9元。 瑞銀普遍上調其他內銀目標價,詳見另表。
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