豬肉股異動拉昇，養殖ETF、農業ETF上升
格隆匯6月8日丨豬肉股異動拉昇，新五豐、巨星農牧升停，華統股份、傲農生物、温氏股份等跟升。
鵬華基金畜牧ETF、招商基金畜牧養殖ETF、國泰基金養殖ETF、易方達基金現代農業ETF、平安基金養殖ETF升超2%。
農業農村部監測數據顯示，6月7日，全國農產品批發市場豬肉平均價格為19.21元/公斤，較5月初下降約3%，較年初大跌26.1%。生豬方面，據中國養豬網監測數據，6月7日，生豬（外三元）為14.24元/公斤，較5月初跌2.2%，較年初下降13.4%。
2022年四季度以來，商品豬價格持續走低，從26元/公斤左右一路下跌至目前的14元/公斤左右，跌幅約45%。
牧原股份、温氏股份、新希望等多家頭部豬企相繼披露5月銷售簡報。
牧原股份5月份銷售生豬576.4萬頭，銷售收入94.89億元。其中向全資子公司牧原肉食品及其子公司合計銷售生豬96.2萬頭。公司商品豬銷售均價14.18元/公斤，環比下降0.14%。
温氏股份5月銷售肉豬209.36萬頭，收入36.64億元，毛豬銷售均價14.33元/公斤，環比變動分別為-0.60%、-1.58%、-0.21%，同比變動分別為58.20%、46.44%、-8.96%。
新希望5月銷售生豬144.28萬頭，環比變動-8.33%，同比變動37.99%；收入為22.38億元，環比變動-5.25%，同比變動26.73%；商品豬銷售均價14.20元/公斤，環比持平，同比變動-4.12%。
從業績看，多數上市豬企一季度業績大部分是虧損的，牧原股份、温氏股份、新希望同比減虧，一季度虧損分別為11.98億元、27.49億元、16.86億元。
豬企持續虧損的主因是豬價的下跌，以牧原股份為例，一季度生豬養殖總成本15.5元/公斤，生豬銷售均價14.5元/公斤至15元/公斤，相當於每公斤生豬虧損約0.5元-1元；出欄商品豬均重120公斤，每頭虧損在60元-120元。
面對豬價的長期低迷，國家發改委曾在5月5日表示，將會同有關部門研究適時啟動年內第二批中央凍豬肉儲備收儲工作，推動生豬價格儘快迴歸合理區間。不過，截至目前，收儲遲遲未能“落地”。
民生銀行首席經濟學家温彬分析稱，5月豬肉價格繼續保持底部弱勢，但環比跌幅收窄。一方面天氣回暖導致肉類需求回落，另一方面龍頭企業規模化生產導致產能去化進程放緩，豬肉價格仍處在長週期磨底階段。蔬菜價格在月中見底回升，但全月平均仍略高於4月，水果價格仍處在季節性頂部區域，較4月環比上升。整體看5月食品價格環比跌幅有望收窄。
浙商證券認為，二季度為豬肉消費淡季，需求有限疊加供給充分，豬價仍在低位徘徊。不過，年初開始能繁母豬有所去化，對應2~3個季度之後生豬供應將有所回落，且下半年節假日較多，旅遊、聚餐等助力豬肉需求回暖，預計豬價將於三季度迎來拐點。
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