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瑞銀料內地5月PPI按年跌幅擴至4.3%  CPI增0.3%
阿思達克 06-07 13:44
對於即將公布的5月內地經濟資料,考慮到低基數效有所消退、按月增長動能較弱,瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤估計,5月工業生產按年增速可能放緩至2.2%,社會消費品零售按年增速可能放緩至12.8%。整體固定資產投資按年增速可能放緩至2.3%。至於5月信貸增速可能回落0.3個百分點。PPI按年跌幅可能有所擴大至4.3%,而CPI按年增速小幅上升0.3%。 該行預計,5月內地大部分經濟活動按年增長較4月有所放緩。次季經濟活動按年增速整體保持穩健,這意味著短期內政策定調可能保持基本穩定、新增政策支援規模有限。不過,如果中國經濟增長動能持續走弱,如消費和房地產復甦力度明顯弱於預期,或出口大幅下跌,政府可能會在下半年加大對基建投資的支援,出台部分領域的消費支援政策,進一步放鬆房地產政策。 該行指,政策定調變化的時點可能在7月底召開的政治局會議,未來2至3個月的國務院常務會議也可能公布一些具體政策措施。目前對今年全年GDP增長5.7%的預測面臨下行風險。(ha/u)~
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