危還是機？一文讀懂：本輪債務上限值得關注的投資品種
眼下，距離美國觸發債務上限“X日”的時間點，無疑已經越來越近……如果政府無法及時達成提高債務上限的協議，經濟將面臨毀滅性的破壞。
“X日”是指美國在達到債務上限後，財政部耗盡所有非常規措施以及TGA賬戶現金的日期，屆時，美國政府將無法全額支付各項開支。在“X日”後，美國將可能出現主權違約，這是歷史上從未出現過的場景。但如今，卻幾乎沒有人能忽視這層風險！
“X日”究竟在何時到來？
目前，業內人士的共識是，美國政府多半會在6月1日-15日期間觸發“X日”，而如果真的能夠熬過6月15日這一天，那麼至少將能夠再“續命”一個多月。
美國政府觸發“X日”後會發生什麼？
耶倫曾警告稱，違約將“破壞”全球金融體系的基礎。“可以想象，我們會看到許多金融市場崩潰——全球恐慌引發追加保證金、擠兌和低價拋售，社會保障和退伍軍人福利的償付將停止，這將造成廣泛的痛苦。聯邦政府的運作——包括空中交通管制、執法、邊境巡邏、國防以及電信系統等基本行動可能會中斷。”
這種場景下，投資者應該離場觀望還是投入其中博取收益呢？有哪些投資品種值得關注？
首先是標普500波動率指數（.VIX），在市場動盪之際，VIX的波動往往更加劇烈。比如在2020年疫情爆發之初，該指數一度從11.42暴漲至85.47，漲幅高達648%。同期期權的投資機會，更是明顯。
其次是南方兩倍做多黃金ETF（07299），得益於美元疲軟等因素推動，該ETF今年漲幅爲13%，大幅跑贏南方兩倍做多恆指ETF。
此外，貝萊德指出，隨着提高美國債務上限的最後期限越來越近，金融市場出現了越來越多的不安跡象。
目前債券市場的波動性已經超過了美國上一次面臨債務違約風險時，當時標普500指數在2011年7月至8月期間下跌了約17%。
照此觀察，三倍做空標普500指數（SPXU）亦是一個值得關注的品種。
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