植耀輝:港股繼續250天線上落 快手-W(01024.HK)宜趁反彈減持
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股昨日(22日)出現顯著反彈,恆指一度重上19,800點水平,惟高位缺乏承接,A股升幅亦有所收窄,最終恆指收報19,678點,上升227點或1.17%,250天線(19,695點)再次得而復失;科指則升超過2%。不過交投仍疏落,全日成交金額不足940億元。值得留意的是港股通資金流,北水大手沽出盈富基金(02800.HK)及恆生國企指數ETF(02828.HK),不排除上週低位撈貨之內地投資者趁港股反彈先行沽出獲利。港股暫仍未見有利好催化劑,故投資者關注點亦繼續集中於美國債務上限及內地A股表現身上。預期大市仍只會於19,700點水平上落。
股份方面,快手-W(01024.HK)昨日公布季度業績,經調整利潤首次錄得盈利,集團並宣布進行40億元股份回購計劃。由於快手上季經調整虧損已大幅收窄至4,532萬元人民幣,本年度首季/次季扭虧亦屬可預期之內;事實上跟早前公布業績之科技公司相類似,快手成功扭虧之關鍵在於成本控制得宜,至於營運數據上雖有增長,惟增幅未見太突出,筆者亦關注其業務未來增長表現。何況快手本身估值並不便宜,所以即使業績優於市場預期加上回購股份對短期股價或有支持,惟相信只屬短期支持,未來仍須視乎業務增速而定。如早前已撈貨,建議可於60元附近先行沽出獲利。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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美股關注債限談判 港股續缺乏方向
耀才研究部稱,美股隔晚(22日)個別發展,投資者繼續關注債務上限談判之最新進展,道指偏軟,標普500指數及納指則靠穩。至於反映中概股表現之金龍指數則造好,上升2.1%。
港股方面,在科技股有不俗表現下,恆指昨日反彈227點,收報19,678點,並一度重上250天線(19,700點)水平。「ATM」合共為恆指貢獻84點,醫藥股亦普遍出現反彈,藥明生物(02269.HK)及翰森製藥(03692.HK)均升超過5%。雖然大市回升,只是美國債務上限談判依然未有定案。另外,雖然本港與內地股市均有所反彈,但兩市成交未見增加,反映升勢仍欠說服力。預期港股將維持好淡爭持格局不變,繼續於19,700點水平上落。
至於技術分析角度,恆指在跌至保歷加通道下方後昨日雖然有所反彈,但升至中軸(19,825點)附近後無功而還,意味上方阻力不輕,另外,250天線似由前支持變阻力,若短期未能重上該水平,則走勢或會進一步轉弱,並下試19,000點水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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