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隆基綠能(601012.SH):近期產業鏈價格下行並非需求清淡所致
格隆匯 05-22 10:55

格隆匯5月22日丨有投資者向隆基綠能(601012.SH)提問:5月以來產業鏈價格快速調整,請問背後的原因是什麼?是否是需求出現了問題?請問預計什麼時間產業鏈價格企穩?

隆基綠能回覆:根據全球不同市場已經公佈的裝機數據,2023年全球光伏市場持續保持了良好的發展勢頭,以中國市場為例,國家能源局數據顯示,2023年1-4月中國光伏新增裝機48.31GW,相當於2022年全年的55.27%;同期中國組件出口金額158億美元,同比增長14%。因此,近期產業鏈價格下行並非需求清淡所致。

隨着上游硅料新增產能的不斷投產,產業鏈整體供給得到充分釋放,導致光伏產品價格壓力上升,短期出現了較為快速的調整。

近期,光伏市場的變化非常快速,很難精準判斷短期的價格變化。從國內大型光伏項目建設規劃和海外市場的訂單簽署節奏看,全球大部分的需求將集中在2023年下半年釋放。目前光伏組件的市場價格已經不到1.7元/W,如果考慮2023年下半年全球需求釋放的密度和產業鏈不同環節的供需變化,組件價格波動的空間已經較為有限,預計隨着下半年越來越多項目的啟動建設,光伏產業鏈的價格可能會恢復到相對穩定的水平。

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