機構：港匯攀升對港股的影響有限，還需等待更多信號
來源：戴清策略研究
作者：戴清、王一凡
由於國內經濟數據不及預期影響，港股三大指數震盪下行。恆指上週累計下跌2.11%，國企指數同期下跌1.97%，科技指數跌0.55%。恆生科技指數上週跌幅小於其他兩大指數，受益於部分科技股一季度業績利好。板塊方面，汽車股、鋰電池股、電力股漲幅居前，黃金股、醫藥股普遍下挫。恆生指數和國企指數走低，“中特估”主題有所降溫，不過該主題下的能源、建築等板塊仍持續獲南向資金增持。
短期市場多空因素影響幾何？1）國內通脹再次低於預期，核心CPI的反彈需要看到預防性儲蓄的釋放和居民失業率的趨勢性回落。PPI大幅弱於季節性，國內復甦動能走弱。2）4月社融明顯回落，社融-M2剪刀差依然處於歷史最高水平的區域，即資金向實體經濟傳導不暢。未來超額儲蓄流出+庫存與盈利週期見拐點+地產趨勢性向上才能再度擡升經濟預期。3）出口環比創歷史新低，驗證了3月出口高增是受益於2022年底疫後訂單回補的紅利，或難以持續。未來歐美需求整體走弱，政策加碼概率或上升。
近期港匯和Hibor爲何攀升？5月11日Hibor創2007年新高，港匯走強，主要源於中國香港金融管理局的幹預，以應對海外流動性緊張和港匯徘徊在弱方保證的局面，疊加香港銀行最近在提高最優惠貸款利率，收緊流動性，而跟國內的政策、經濟預期的關聯度不大，並不意味着外資開始加大購買中資資產。此外，港元拆息急升不排除是短期內有大型交易進行，隨着半年結時間將至，以及港股即將進入派息高峯期，預期市場對港元的短週期需求將有所上升。
港匯走強對港股影響如何？近期港幣走強，更多是中國香港本地金融機構滯後於美聯儲進行的收緊動作，而不是美國通脹超預期下滑，也不是國內經濟超預期外資大幅買入中國資產。在這種情況下，當下的港元攀升對於港股的影響或較爲有限，還需要等待更多有利信號，可能對香港本地信貸相關的資產影響更大。
投資建議：短期關注高股息+中特估，佈局海外流動性敏感品種。短期而言建議關注高股息+“中特估”相關的央國企，建議關注高分紅、低估值、資本開支少且ROE有望提升的央國企。中期來看，目前港股位置處於歷史底部區域，中期佈局建議繼續關注彈性品種，例如恆生科技、創新藥、半導體、以及傳統特色消費行業等。
風險因素：1）國內經濟復甦進度不及預期；2）美聯儲超預期收緊；3）中美關係超預期反覆。
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