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《大行報告》大摩:HIBOR上揚利港銀 現階段對股市影響有限
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,本港一個月HIBOR急升,在美國利率週期見頂、香港金管局流動性工具和中國經濟復甦下,流動性緊縮的風險似乎是可控的。較高的HIBOR將有利於銀行,但對房地產影響則為中性。 該行認為現階段HIBOR上揚對股票市場的影響有限,因為目前HIBOR及LIBOR之間的差距開始縮窄。然而,如果HIBOR持續高於LIBOR,這將導致流動性收緊並可能打壓股市估值。 該行認為,如果一個月HIBOR相對於LIBOR能夠持續正常化,將對銀行有利,並有助於支持今年第二季和下半年港元淨息差的復甦。隨著亞洲經濟體的表現優於全球同行,以及具有吸引力的估值和資本回報率支持股本回報率,該行匯控(00005.HK)和渣打銀行(02888.HK)持樂觀態度,香港淨息差的緩解將增加長期貸款增長的好處。中銀香港(02388.HK)和恆生(00011.HK)亦將受惠。 對於香港房地產,由於美國加息或暫停且所有定息按揭計劃的鎖息上限為P-2.25%,實際利率即為3.5%,預計抵押貸款利率不會進一步上升,料HIBOR目前的波動不會對房地產價格產生任何影響。
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