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美聯儲似乎正在醞釀“有條件暫停加息”
uSMART盈立智投 05-09 20:33

5月4日,景順投資管理有限公司首席環球市場策略師Kristina Hooper發文稱,即便美聯儲主席鮑威爾(Jay Powell)堅稱“暫時沒有做出暫停加息的決定”,但這實際上就是“有條件暫停加息”,理由有三:一是美聯儲於聲明中刪除:“委員會預期部分額外政策收緊可能是合適的”,並以下文取代:“政策的收緊幅度將取決於經濟數據。”這爲日後加息確立了十分不同的標準。

二是美聯儲措辭與2006年暫停加息時的措辭相若。摘自2006年8月聯邦公開市場委員會的聲明:“應對這些風險而可能需要作出的任何額外收緊的幅度及時機,將取決於通脹及經濟增長前景的變化,正如即將發佈的信息所示。”

三是美聯儲措辭及鮑威爾在新聞發佈會上發表的言論亦與加拿大央行於1月份宣佈“有條件暫停加息”時提出的數據依賴論相若。加拿大央行當時表示:“鑑於目前經濟增長低迷,我們預期將暫停加息,同時評估已實施的大規模緊縮貨幣政策的影響。需要明確的是,這是有條件暫停加息—其條件是經濟發展與我們的(貨幣政策報告)展望基本一致。如有必要,我們將採取進一步措施以令通脹達到2%的目標。”

此外,美聯儲並未改變其量化緊縮政策。

受此消息影響,股市下跌,市場波幅預計會加劇

股市因應下跌,價值股跌幅超過成長股。羅素2000成長股指數當日輕微上升。黃金上漲,芝加哥期權交易所市場波幅指數(VIX指數)亦有所上升。美國國庫債券孳息率下降。KBW地區性銀行指數(KBW Regional Banking Index)於4日再度下行,儘管在尾盤略有回升。

景順預計短期內市場波幅將加劇,因爲未來公佈的數據將備受關注,以判斷是否會觸發額外的加息。但重點是可能已經十分接近加息週期尾聲。這可能會形成更利好風險資產(如股票)的環境。大部分情況下,股票在加息後一至兩年內的表現通常向好(除2000年以外)。

景順預期近日市場將較爲波動,看好防禦型投資組合部署。

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