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新能源產業鏈全線反彈,光伏ETF普升

今日新能源產業鏈全線反彈,其中電池、整車板塊表現突出,光伏、風電、儲能方向領升。A股中,東威科技、英可瑞“20cm”升停,雙傑電氣升超16%,中能電氣、祥鑫科技、億晶光電、禾望電氣、萬馬股份升停。

ETF中,天弘ETF升0.88%,銀華基金光伏50ETF、華泰柏瑞光伏ETF升0.7%。光伏ETF平安、國泰基金光伏50ETF等跟升。

光伏ETF跟蹤中證光伏產業指數,該指數從滬深市場主營業務涉及光伏產業鏈上、中、下游的上市公司證券中,選取不超過50只最具代表性上市公司證券作為指數樣本,以反映滬深市場光伏產業上市公司證券的整體表現。

目前市場上有10只ETF跟蹤光伏產業,其中,華泰柏瑞光伏ETF是市場上規模最大的跟蹤光伏產業的ETF。該只ETF最新規模153.78億元,相比5月5日的126.78億,短短5日就增加了27億元,可見有資金在借道ETF佈局光伏板塊的投資。

華泰柏瑞光伏ETF十大權重股覆蓋光伏全產業鏈上下游,前十大重倉股包含TCL中環、隆基綠能、陽光電源、通威股份等行業龍頭,合計佔基金淨值比例高達58%,集中度較高。

消息面上,國家能源局數據顯示,1-3月,全國可再生能源新增裝機4740萬千瓦,佔全國新增發電裝機的80.3%,同比增長86.5%。

從市場交易風格來看,昨天A股中特估與AI板塊博弈比較激烈,午後多隻中字頭個股升幅收窄,大金融股直接高位跳水。

今日資金繼續從中特估方向流出,但沒有像市場預料的那種流入AI板塊中,反而是被市場忽略很久的新能源產業鏈全面大升,光伏、風電、儲能等細分方向升幅較大。

其實從絕對值來看,新能源的的光伏的業績增速仍處於高位,在硅料價格回調的大趨勢下,市場預期今年是光伏裝機大年。

數據來看也是如此。一季度國內新增裝機33.66GW,同比增長154.8%,組件出口49.73GW,同比增長26.1%。其中,三月份國內新增裝機和組件出口增速分別為165.5%、53%,均呈現加速增長態勢。

終端需求的旺盛也帶動了一季度業績向好,主要光伏公司一季度收入1718.8億元,同比增長33.1%,歸母淨利潤256.9億元,同比增長51.9%,板塊整體淨利率創近兩年新高。

不過從今年四個月的市場風格來看,新能源更像是中特估與AI主線轉換中的過渡板塊,可持續性仍有待觀察。

而且在海外市場,光伏板塊仍面臨一定的政策風險。5月3日,美國參議院以56票對41票通過了取消東南亞光伏關税豁免的決議。

如果該決議最終由白宮通過,東南亞地區進口的太陽能板關税可能高達254%,目前受影響的進口產品的關税都在兩位數以下。

對於新能源板塊的投資價值,有不少基金經理表示很看好。一季報顯示,百億級基金經理傅鵬博和施成分別加倉了光伏龍頭通威股份和新能源車龍頭寧德時代。

傅鵬博在季報中表示:“年初以來對持倉做了調整,增加了一些前期儲備的公司。一季度個股調整給我們逆勢建倉提供了機會。”

銀華心怡基金經理李曉星認為,現在市場對新能源板塊擔憂的討論,更多的是對於一個下跌板塊的應激式反應,經過大半年的消化,新能源板塊的風險已得到充分的釋放,目前非常具有投資吸引力。

基金經理王夫偉也在一季報中表示看好新能源的投資價值,展望二季度,認為虹吸效應對新能源行業的影響已經吿一段落,新能源行業的整體估值水平處於非常低的位置,和其他行業比,有比較明顯的配置價值

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