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《大行報告》摩通料內銀今年餘下時間續跑贏 短期仍推薦國有銀行
摩根大通發表報告指,內銀股本月以來股價累升逾10%,跑贏上證綜指和恆生指數同期8個百分點。該行與中國在岸及離岸投資者進行溝通,根據其與投資者的互動,認為香港及新加坡的投資者對內銀股投資取態中性,但英國、歐盟及美國的投資者則傾向減持。 該行表示,與在岸投資者溝通,約有20至30%的投資者增持中國銀行股,並從近期的反彈中受益。大約30至40%的在岸投資者持有內銀股的一些頭寸,但對該行業看法中性或減持的這一類別的大多數投資者不打算在當前水平追逐,但他們正在考慮在出現調整時買入內銀股。該行在採訪過的在岸投資者中,約有 30%沒有持有內銀股的頭寸。 該行認為這在國企改革短期內不會對基本面產生實際影響,大多數離岸投資者並不期望國有企業改革會對銀行產生實質性影響。不過,這確實有助於銀行估值,因為國企ETF基金的上升以及散戶投資者可能在國企利好的支持下流入A股市場。 該行料內銀在今年餘下時間將繼續跑贏,預計離岸市場將進一步轉向內銀股H股。該行又認為,目前內銀的升勢屬於週期性,而非結構性,預計國有企業改革的實際影響將會減弱。如果國企改革比該行的基本情景更為顯著,料中國國有銀行或會進行結構性重新評級。短期仍然推薦國有銀行或國有企業擁有權集中的銀行。
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