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瑞銀將中國全年GDP增長預測上調為至少5.7%
阿思達克 05-08 14:53
瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室報告指,在消費反彈的帶動下,第一季中國經濟復甦強於預期,將全年GDP增長預測上調為至少5.7%。同時依然認為今年中國股市的盈利增長將達到14%左右,在亞洲區內名列前茅。認為今年中國股票有高雙位數上行空間,並看好消費、互聯網、運輸、資本品和材料類股成為經濟復甦的受益者。 報告指,美國和中國的增長形勢此消彼長以及利率形勢分歧,將是美元兌人民幣的主要驅動因素,並依然認為美元兌人民幣尚未完全反映這些因素,年底前可能朝6.5下跌。而隨著經濟動能在五一黃金週假期後進一步增強,人民幣將可保持穩步升值態勢。 該行指,隨著出境遊更為容易,市場擔心中國貿易順差見頂或許會不利於人民幣。但該行不認為這構成看跌人民幣的充分理由,並指美國加息週期已近尾聲,接下來的政策重點將由對抗通膨轉向支持銀行體系和經濟,這將部份減弱高利率對美元匯率的支持。
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