大小摩和瑞銀偏好債券勝於股票，經濟衰退威脅是主因
經濟衰退的威脅正使債券成爲較安全的投資，而股市尚未反映這些風險。
這是從摩根大通到瑞銀和摩根士丹利一些基金經理和策略師的觀點，他們現在更偏好固定收益工具而非股票。他們所持的論點是：債券（尤其是評級較高的債券）將能更好地抵禦任何經濟放緩；如果美聯儲未能實現軟着陸，股票受傷會較重。
他們這個想法是受到數據支持的。一是高級別美元債券收益率與MSCI ACWI指數成分企業的股息收益率之差。這個差距在過去一年擴大近90個基點，並接近3月份的峯值，這是自2008年全球金融危機以來的最高水平。現在購買債券可以爲投資者提供額外的收益，如果利率下降，他們還有資本利得。
週二美國區域性銀行遭到拋售，再度引爆對金融穩定的焦慮，股市的風險成爲關注焦點，股市下跌。資金尋求避險下，提振了債券。兩年期美國國債收益率一度暴跌21個基點至4%以下，該國債收益率對美聯儲動作極爲敏感。
全球股市今年迄今的回報率因而降至約7%，投資級別債券爲3.3%。股票估值仍高於其12個月的平均水平，對一些投資者來說股價太貴。
摩根資產管理首席亞洲市場策略師Tai Hui表示，他堅信目前整體機會仍然有利於固定收益。對於股票來說，美國的估值仍然不是特別便宜，他認爲盈利預期仍然過於樂觀。
當然，在一個波動的市場，公司債也面臨風險。如果揮之不去的通貨膨脹使利率居高不下，那可能會導致經濟衰退，更多公司會因而倒閉。經濟若放緩，也可能加添全球垃圾債券市場的壓力，這個市場對違約風險更爲敏感。
從更廣泛的宏觀前景來看，一些觀察人士目前總體上更偏好債券。
MSCI ACWI指數成分股以未來12個月預估獲利爲分母計算的市盈率，已從9月底的13.4倍升至約15.8倍。據調查，經濟學家認爲，美國在未來12個月內陷入衰退的可能性爲65%，去年同期爲25%。
與此同時，標準普爾500指數期貨的淨空頭頭寸升至十幾年來的高位，表明市場對股價走低的強烈預期。
據瑞銀全球財富管理亞太區股票和信用主管Hartmut Issel稱，瑞銀已將債券上調至其最偏愛的資產類別，並將股票下調至最不偏愛的資產類別。
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