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嘉信理財香港:美國利率處於或接近高峰 緊縮政策在發揮作用
阿思達克 05-04 10:25
嘉信理財香港有限公司理財顧問林長傑表示,美國聯儲局宣布再加息0.25厘,預期美國利率已處於或接近高峰,由於通脹率仍遠高於聯儲局想達到的目標,聯儲局再度加息,預期可能是當前周期的最後一次加息。 他認為,美聯儲過去一年的緊縮政策似乎正在發揮作用,局方以近代最快速度加息後,過熱的經濟增長得以緩和,對需求的增長亦正在放緩,製造業最新數據呈現疲軟,消費者支出呈現緩勢持續不振。 但他指出,信貸緊縮或經濟衰退的風險已經增加,由於銀行傾向於在短期市場借貸並以更長時間放貸,聯儲局的緊縮政策增加了消費者和企業的借貸成本。在最近的銀行倒閉事件以及資金從銀行存款轉移到貨幣市場基金之後,信貸條件收緊的趨勢可能會變得更加明顯,認為金融體系面臨風險增加,聯儲局將對進一步收緊政策猶豫不決,美國股市或會出現額外波動。
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