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科技巨頭財報難以支撐美股,投資者爲何仍在擔心銀行困境?
uSMART盈立智投 04-27 09:49

隔夜道瓊斯工業指數下跌逾200點,投資者對第一共和銀行的擔憂蓋過了大型科技公司業績帶來的樂觀情緒。

具體來看,週三道瓊斯工業指數下跌228.96點,收於33,301.87點,跌幅0.68%。標準普爾500指數下跌0.38%,收於4,055.99點。以科技股爲主的納斯達克指數上漲0.47%,收於11,854.35點。

第一共和銀行股價下跌近30%,繼週二下跌近50%後繼續下跌。這家地區性銀行週一晚間說,第一季度存款下降40%,至1,045億美元。

這再次引發了人們對銀行體系健康狀況的擔憂,這種擔憂最初是由上月硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)倒閉引發的。美國銀行監管機構正在考慮降低對第一共和銀行的評級,這可能會阻礙該銀行從美聯儲借款的能力。

另一方面,隔夜微軟(Microsoft)股價上漲逾7%,達到一年多來的最高點,此前該公司最新一季度的營收和利潤都超出了華爾街的預期。該公司還表示,其智能雲業務部門的收入大幅增長。亞馬遜股價上漲超過2%,因爲一些市場參與者對這家電子商務巨頭的雲業務也可能顯示出強勁的收入增長抱有希望。

谷歌母公司Alphabet股價在當天早些時候上漲後收盤下跌0.1%。這家市值100億美元的科技公司公佈了好於預期的收益,但收入僅比去年同期增長了3%。

Facebook母公司Meta在美股盤後公佈財報,顯示第一季度銷售額意外增長,併發布了好於預期的當期業績指引,該公司股價週三在盤後交易中上漲了 12%。

Baird投資策略分析師羅斯•梅菲爾德(Ross Mayfield)表示:“企業財報不足以推動市場走高。大型科技公司發佈了幾份不錯的報告,但我認爲需要財報真正越過一個高門檻,才能真正催化下一輪上漲。”

“但事實並非如此,尤其是當市場面臨其他不利因素時。”

最近美國經濟面臨的最大問題是:銀行業的動盪會有多嚴重?儘管兩家美國銀行一個月前倒閉,第三家仍在苦苦掙扎,但美聯儲的緊急貸款似乎阻止了更大範圍的損害。

下一個問題應該是:它會蔓延到銀行之外嗎?這是因爲一個月前硅谷銀行的倒閉引發了這一輪動盪,它是金融體系和經濟領域出現問題的症狀,而不是原因。

硅谷銀行的核心問題是,它持有大量由不穩定存款提供資金的政府債務。隨着去年利率的大幅上升,這些債務的市值暴跌,存款變得更加昂貴和稀缺。

許多銀行持有同樣貶值的債券,但這只是債務的冰山一角。據美聯儲的數據,自2009年底以來,政府、企業和家庭所欠的債務總額增加了90%,達到68萬億美元。

自去年年初以來,利率以20世紀80年代初以來最快的速度上升。當利率上升時,現有貸款或債券的價值就會下降。這並不總是顯而易見的,貸款機構通常不會在收益報表中按市值計價貸款,有時也不會按市值計價債券。

但不管會計處理如何,現實是,這些債券和貸款的價值遠低於它們發行時的價值,必須有人承擔這些損失。國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)研究主管Hyun Song Shin表示:“這將在金融體系的某個地方顯現出來。”

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