花旗:美股將承壓
據花旗稱,當全球各大央行撤回高達8000億美元的經濟刺激計劃時,股市和其他風險資產將受到打擊。花旗全球市場策略師Matt King週二寫道,逾1萬億美元的央行流動性注入推動了風險情緒上漲,而高頻流動性指標顯示,這一勢頭已經停滯。King指出,除了其他央行部署的貨幣支持外,美聯儲在美國銀行業危機之後也擴大了4400億美元的資產負債表。
King寫道,這波全球政策支持“壓低了實際收益率,支撐了股票市盈率,並在盈利預期下降的情況下收窄了信貸息差”。

King上個月表示,全球央行的“祕密”量化寬鬆政策推動了市場繁榮。King稱:“我們現在預計,幾乎所有這些寬鬆計劃都將停滯不前或徹底逆轉。我們認爲,未來幾周全球流動性可能會減少6000 - 8000億美元,從而削弱這一過程中的風險情緒。隨着流動性峯值的過去,如果市場現在突然出現壓力損失,我們一點也不會感到意外。”
King發表上述觀點之前,受科技股大漲推動,美國股市今年迄今上漲了8.2%,紐交所科技巨頭FANG+指數上漲了36%。衡量風險的重要資產——比特幣自去年12月底以來幾乎翻了一番。
其他人也對今年的風險上漲持懷疑態度。對衝基金Vantage Point Asset Management首席投資官Nick Ferres表示,股市定價過於樂觀。Ferres在週三的一份報告中稱,"支撐股市反彈的市場廣度極其薄弱。股票投資者似乎想要享受降息帶來的所有好處,卻不想承受降息帶來的痛苦。”
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