一文综合大行于金沙中国(01928.HK)公布季绩后目标价及观点
金沙中国(01928.HK)今早开市前公布今年首季业绩,按美国公认会计原则,经调整物业EBITDA为正3.98亿美元,盘中曾高见30.05元一度抢高4.5%,最新报29.8元升3.7%。里昂指,金沙中国首季业绩良好,经调整EBITDA及赢率调整后EBITDA均较市场预期高15%,为2019年首季的46%水平。整体博彩毛收入按季升2.77倍,3月的复苏速度较今年首两个月加快。该行指,金沙中国第二季将恢复86%房间供应,并于第三季恢复所有房间供应,将为EBITDA进一步扩张奠下基础。该行给予金沙中国「买入」评级及33.9元目标价。
金沙中国公布按美国公认会计原则,首季净收益总额按年升逾1.3倍至12.7亿美元;期内净亏损按年收窄97%至1,000万美元。经调整物业EBITDA为正3.98亿美元,上年同期为负1,100万美元。期内经扣除资本化金额后利息开支按年升38%至2.18亿美元;加权平均借款成本按年升1.2个百分点至5.4%,同时加权平均债务余额较去年同季有所增加,该增幅乃由于去年SCL信贷融资项下的借款9.99亿美元所致。第一季资本开支共为1.66亿美元,包括于澳门3,800万美元的建造、发展及维修活动。
【季绩胜预期 迎强劲复苏】
高盛上调对金沙中国2023年至2025年EBITDA预测最多6%,并把金沙中国目标价上调至37元,维持「买入」评级。该行指,濠赌股有两项令市场预测上调的来源,包括中场博彩毛收复苏,以及EBITDA率于永久性成本节约和收入组合转向中场部门扩张。该行结构分析显示,纵使博彩中介贵宾的博彩毛收流失,但行业EBITDA在中场博彩毛收较疫前高约5%的情况下可回复至疫前水平,金沙中国的首季业绩确认上述观点。
美银证券引述金沙中国管理层指,3月旗下中场博彩毛收较今年首两个月升10%,酒店入住率则升8个百分点,转码数亦于3月显著加快。此外,高端中场博彩金额及人数亦复苏较快,管理层对基础中场在游客增加及旅游服务樽颈缓解下的复苏潜力有信心,非广东省旅客复苏亦因酒店房间紧张落后于广东省旅客。该行亦引述管理层指,对亚洲地区外来贵宾需求感到意外,相信其销售网络及具质素产品可继续吸引外来玩家。该行予金沙中国「买入」评级及33.3元目标价。
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本网最新列出6间券商对金沙中国的投资评级及目标价:
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
高盛│买入│36元->37元
里昂│买入│33.9元
瑞信│跑赢大市│33.8元
美银证券│买入│33.3元
摩根士丹利│增持│32元
瑞银│中性│31.8元
券商│观点
高盛│确认EBITDA复苏主题,纵使中介贵宾流失
里昂│季绩良好,经调整EBITDA胜市场预期15%
瑞信│管理层展望乐观
美银证券│仍有复苏空间
摩根士丹利│EBITDA显著胜预期,受中场市占增长推动
瑞银│季绩显著胜预期
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