東吳證券：港股爲何還有些脆弱？ 何時才能強勢反彈?
東吳證券發佈研究報告稱，現階段港股表現脆弱的主要原因是港幣本身，不是來自對經濟基本面和企業盈利的擔憂。此前，由於美聯儲不斷加息，導致港幣Hibor與美元Libor息差不斷擴大，形成套利空間，市場上不斷將港幣兌換成美元。該行觀察彭博恆生指數一致預期EPS，今年已上調至新高，但恆生指數並沒有跟隨其強勢反彈。港股承壓，很大程度上是受港幣自身因素幹擾。何時港股才能堅挺?該行認爲要看到美聯儲最後一次加息，港幣擺脫弱兌換區間，港股纔可強勢反彈。
東吳證券主要觀點如下：
此前，由於美聯儲不斷加息，導致港幣Hibor與美元Libor息差不斷擴大，形成套利空間，市場上不斷將港幣兌換成美元。香港銀行美元存款佔比明顯提升。目前，港幣兌美元弱勢，已觸發弱兌換區間，香港金管局幹預買入港元，香港銀行體系結餘一路下行，港幣流動性收緊。但該行觀察今年4月香港銀行6個月定存，美元和港幣利率還存在明顯息差，仍有套利空間。
該行認爲現階段中國經濟增速預期向好。正面外交信號頻出，中東、拉美資金對中國愈發感興趣。“兩個毫不動搖”政策加持。整體上，企業盈利上漲有良好條件，所以其不是港股表現脆弱的主因。該行觀察彭博恆生指數一致預期EPS，今年已上調至新高，但恆生指數並沒有跟隨其強勢反彈。該行認爲港股承壓，很大程度上是受港幣自身因素幹擾。
何時港股才能堅挺?該行認爲要看到美聯儲最後一次加息，港幣擺脫弱兌換區間，港股纔可強勢反彈。
如果今年5月美聯儲停止加息落實，美國經濟正式進入衰退週期，美股會逐漸price in經濟下滑預期，企業盈利預測會逐漸下調，進而美股呈現下跌趨勢，資金會逐漸離開美國。而在中國經濟表現相對具有韌性的情況下，中國會成外資轉移方向，最先利好港股。其中很重要的邏輯是，美國市場與中國市場關係已經與此前明顯不同，兩者逐漸形成蹺蹺板模式。美股向下，中國資產的吸引力反而提升。
如果美聯儲停止加息，將緩解當前港幣與美元利差壓力，港幣不再被壓制在弱勢兌換區間，會利於港股反彈。人民幣的息差壓力也會大幅減輕，降低海外資本投資中國的匯率成本。即便美聯儲不會馬上降息，下半年利率水平不下降，只要港幣與美元利差不再擴大，港幣脫離弱兌換區間，資本流動性好轉，該行認爲就會利好港股。
該行認爲如果5月中國經濟增速環比回升確定，5月美聯儲停止加息信號明確，外資長錢很可能會在5-6月流入中國，利好港股和A股。如果長錢按預期流入，市場或切換至泛消費板塊，以及中國強勢製造業板塊。
風險提示：美聯儲持續加息;國內經濟增速低於預期。
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