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A股收評:滬指跌0.68%,傳媒股領銜上攻,大消費概念走強

4月19日,三大指數集體下跌,滬指跌0.68%,報3370點,深成指跌0.84%,創業板指跌0.63%,兩市上升1542股,下跌3279股,兩市成交額超1萬億,北上淨賣出9億元。

盤面上,通信設備、景點與旅遊、酒店與餐飲板塊升幅靠前,房地產、汽車整車、證券板塊跌幅靠前。酒店與餐飲、景點與旅遊板塊午後大升,西安旅遊、西域旅遊升超9%。途牛數據顯示,跟團遊的需求較高,主題公園、周邊酒店自駕遊搜索情況持續走高,預計五一假期北京將迎來出遊熱潮。CPO概念股午後回落,劍橋科技、武漢凡谷升停。

具體來看:

傳媒股大爆發,唐德影視升超16%,歡瑞世紀、慈文傳媒、北京文化等掀起升停潮。中航證券表示,GPT產品的更迭標誌着人工智能進入了新的發展階段。全年維度看,隨着GPT逐漸從主題轉向能夠落地的階段,有望在遊戲、內容IP、電商、影視傳媒等數字化程度高、內容需求豐富的行業率先商業化落地,贏家將展露頭角。

旅遊、餐飲等大消費概念表現強勁。西域旅遊、西藏旅遊、曲江文旅等升停。發改委今日表示,當前正在抓緊研究起草關於恢復和擴大消費的政策文件,主要是圍繞穩定大宗消費、提升服務消費、拓展農村消費等重點領域,根據不同收入羣體、不同消費品類的需求制定有針對性的政策舉措,推動消費平穩增長。

半導體股反彈,寒武紀-U升超13%,天德鈺升超11%,海光信息、創耀科技升超9%。東吳證券稱,半導體復甦關注度極高,投資窗口已經開啟,堅定看好半導體投資窗口已至。本輪半導體週期從21年中開始下行,見證需求趨弱、庫存累計、原廠虧損,調整時間、空間均已相對到位。從晶圓廠、封測廠、終端需求等終端多重驗證,認為23年內週期有望見底回升。站在AI需求引領的新一輪半導體週期起點,核心是提升倉位配置比例。大市值公司作為機構配置首選,排序理應靠前,戰略重視大市值。

通信設備顧升幅居前,聯特科技升超15%,東軟載波升超11%,天邑股份、武漢凡谷升停。華安證券對於4月-5月的投資建議是:AI作為全年主線,確定性強,目前多空仍有分歧(一是基於政策和政治風險國內落地節奏的預期,二是AI基礎設施具體彈性的預期),預計行業調整仍將帶來機會。此外隨着一季報陸續披露,市場此前集中抱團AI的結構或出現一定鬆動,經濟復甦、新能源、軍工信息化等方向或受到資金關注,估值有望修復。

房地產概念低迷,新華聯跌超9%,中交地產、中天金融、金地集團、新城控股、萬通發張跌超4%。中信證券認為政策的頻率和幅度和復甦負相關,基本面的漸進復甦和政策的持續微調同時存在。該行基本維持全年銷售額預測增幅不變,調高對開發投資的增長預期。進入二季度雖然推貨明顯增加,且同比基數較低,但銷售速度可能略有下降。

消費電子大跌,工業富聯跌停,碳元科技觸及跌停,美格智能、歌爾股份等跟跌。消息面上,電工業富聯迴應股價跌停表示:股價走勢是市場波動,公司內部生產經營一切正常。值得注意的是,工業富聯股價上個交易日剛剛創下上市首周以來新高。

家居股跌幅居前,江山歐派跌超7%,蒙娜麗莎跌超6%,箭牌家居、喜臨門等跌超5%。

今日,北上資金淨流入6.14億元,其中滬股通淨流入14.42億元 ,深股通淨流出8.28億元。

展望後市,國君證券認為,目前股票仍處在結構做多的窗口,2023年更多的是一個底部抬升、市場中樞上移的過程。上證3400不會一蹴而就,需要反覆和充分換籌的過程。

繼續看好低位成長,關注傳統細分擴散。1)低位成長:醫藥(創新藥),電子(半導體/消費電子)。2)受益於復甦、一季報有望超預期的成長性的細分:啤酒/食品/出行鏈,以及受益於中特估+類債資產的重估:建築/化工。3)國內數字化政策+海外創新大週期,公募整體低配,中期產業大主題。強勢股仍有空間,但要注意風險控制。關注行情輪動:計算機(數字經濟)、通信(數據要素)、傳媒(影視/遊戲)。

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