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CPI新低引各派預期升溫!交易員押注美聯儲今年降息
uSMART盈立智投 04-13 16:41

美國3月整體CPI增速進一步放緩,交易員開始預期美聯儲將在今年降息,對貨幣政策更敏感的兩年期美債收益率下跌。

美國3月整體CPI增速進一步下降疊加鴿派美聯儲會議紀要,債券交易員進一步押注美聯儲將在今年年底前降息。

與美聯儲會期掛鉤的互換合約顯示,在CPI數據公佈後,交易員們對美聯儲5月加息概率下降至略高於三分之二。

互換市場顯示,12月美聯儲基準利率料比當前的 4.83%低50個基點,較上一日的降息幅度進一步加深。

交易員對美聯儲降息在即的預期令美債收益率下跌。

對貨幣政策更敏感的兩年期美債收益率最深跌18個基點至3.88%。10年期基債收益率最深跌9個基點至3.34%,尾盤時跌3個基點並重回3.40%。

美聯儲會議紀要偏鴿派令美債收益率曲線繼續趨陡。關鍵的2年/10年期息差利尾盤漲4個基點至-55.874個基點。

美國通脹連續第九個月放緩,3月CPI同比增長5%, 低於預期的5.1%,爲2021年5月以來最小的同比漲幅。

不過整份報告實際上喜憂參半,3月核心CPI出現小幅反彈,同比增5.6%,高於前值的5.5%,住房成爲了最重要的原因。

道明證券全球利率策略主管 Priya Misra 表示:

通脹仍然很高,但已經見頂,如果避險政策開始轉向,美聯儲繼續加息的部分壓力將會下降。

媒體分析指出,週三因交易員對美聯儲貨幣政策的不確定,導致美國國債出現了異常波動,今年以來美國國債一直顯現劇烈波動。

但並非所有交易員都認爲美聯儲將在年底降息,富國銀行首席經濟學家傑伊·布賴森表示,如果經濟只是逐漸放緩,2023年特別是不太可能出現降息:

如果聯儲仍然需要將通脹率降回到2%,你不會在今年年底看到降息。因此,我對目前2年期收益率所在位置有點異議。

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